July 16, 2019
Sequential data indicates that activity strengthened somewhat in the second quarter, following sluggish growth in Q1 that was weighed on by lower oil output as a result of pipeline leakages. Due to faster expansions in output and new business, the PMI bounced back from May’s near two-year low in June, bringing the Q2 average above that of Q1. This, combined with buoyant credit growth to the private sector in April–May, and a marked improvement in business confidence in Q2—propped up mainly by the construction and trade sectors—hint at more upbeat business dynamics. Meanwhile, after opting not to endorse the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement in March amid pressure from manufacturers and labor unions, President Muhammadu Buhari finally signed the deal on 7 July. Boasting the largest consumer market in the continent, this should strengthen the pact and boost overall intra-regional trade.
Nigeria Economic Growth
Growth is expected to pick up this year on the back of stronger non-oil activity. In particular, a looser monetary policy stance, the full roll-out of the minimum wage and more upbeat credit provision should buttress domestic demand. The slow progress on structural reforms, oil price volatility and risk of disruptions to oil production cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP increasing 2.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2.7% in 2020.
Nigeria Economy Data
20132014201520162017Population (million)169174179184189GDP per capita (USD)3,0473,2712,7362,1831,974GDP (USD bn)516569489401372Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.56.22.8-1.60.8Consumption (annual variation in %)- - - - - Investment (annual variation in %)7.913.4-1.3-4.8-3.0Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.16.0-3.4-9.40.9Unemployment Rate3.74.45.36.26.0Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-2.1-3.5-4.0-5.4Public Debt (% of GDP)18.617.520.323.425.3Money (annual variation in %)1.320.65.842.30.6Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.08.09.618.615.4Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.58.19.015.716.5Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0013.0011.0014.0014.00Exchange Rate (vs USD)155.2167.5196.5304.5305.5Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)155.3156.5192.6253.2305.3Current Account (% of GDP)3.70.2-3.20.72.8Current Account Balance (USD bn)19.20.9-15.42.710.4Trade Balance (USD billion)42.521.0-6.4-0.513.1Exports (USD billion)97.882.645.934.745.8Imports (USD billion)55.361.652.335.232.7Exports (annual variation in %)0.9-15.6-44.4-24.432.0Imports (annual variation in %)-3.711.4-15.0-32.7-7.3International Reserves (USD)43.634.529.125.838.8External Debt (% of GDP)1.71.72.22.85.1
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